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March Madness

Whats going on with the market? Past, Present, Future!

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March Madness: Past Present Future.

Chris Spötzl

There really is no city quite like Vancouver anywhere in the world and that is what sets it apart...

There really is no city quite like Vancouver anywhere in the world and that is what sets it apart...

Apr 14 16 minutes read

Market Update


The Past (Pre-March)

The numbers for March are in and the strong activity we started seeing in February carried into the first half of the month. They tell a tale of what could have been, not so much what will be. Some highlights from March were:

• North Vancouver was one of the few areas that saw a decline in the number of sales in March compared to February and the number of detached homes sold was below that of March 2019;

• Year over year, the increase in detached homes sold was the greatest at 61%, townhouses followed at 51% with apartments at 35%;

• Year over year the decrease in the number of active listings for detached homes was the greatest at 28 per cent, followed by townhouses at 27% and then apartments at 19%.


The Present

While it may be surprising that we had that many new listings during the current pandemic, April will be more telling of the immediate effects. We saw 2,511 new listings up to March 15 and then 2,010 after that. The daily numbers started to decline leading up to the end of the month but we still saw 233 new listings in Greater Vancouver in the last two days of March. These may seem like a high number for current conditions but it is still well below what we would typically see. There were 4,421 new listings during March in Greater Vancouver, down 11% from last year and 22% below the 10-year average for the month.

For most, the reality check regarding COVID-19 happened when Trudeau announced Canada's measures to prevent its spread on March 18th. Since then, the majority of open houses were cancelled and showing protocols put in place to protect everyone as realtors were deemed as an essential service by the government. This is obviously a less than ideal environment to sell or buy real estate but, in reality, some people still have to. In order to get a better picture of what is happening right now, we pulled up all the residential MLS sales in Vancouver (East & West) from March 18 to April 6th as a sample and came up with 114 sales (40 detached and 74 attached). Interestingly, 55 of them (27 houses and 28 apartments/townhomes) sold at or above list price (48%) in an average of 8 days for houses and 11 days for apartments.


The Future

This is obviously a less than ideal environment to sell but, in reality, some people still have to. For those that have to sell the numbers show that Greater Vancouver was a market gaining momentum that suddenly had the emergency brakes put on. The decline of an already low supply and unpredictable demand have not impacted prices yet but the next few weeks will be very telling. Spring is typically the busiest time of the year in real estate so, as people change plans and evaluate their options, chances are that the consequences of this crisis will produce a lot of activity once we get through it. Good and bad, here are some points that will likely shape our future market:

• People that lost income might have to sell

• Detached/townhouse will be more attractive and in greater demand after this as people want dwellings with social distancing – people will make personal and
financial sacrifices for health

• Those in sectors where the most job losses are occurring in higher numbers aren’t the typical buyers in the market

• After isolation people will grow tired of their homes and want a change

• Unfortunately, some marriages may not survive after this hence people will need to move

• In 9 to 12 months there likely will be a mini-baby boom hence people will need to move

• Having not spent disposable income as much, people are in saving modes and that will carry on beyond this and will add to what’s available for home purchasing (even with reduced incomes, many of the home buyers are still earning an income)

• Interest rates will be low for the foreseeable future, lowest we’ve seen

• With so many sectors in the economy suffering that are important to government revenue, and as they struggle to recover, the government will need investment and revenue from real estate

• There will be a shortage of homes available coming out of this and continuing so prices will not be dropping to any great degree, and new construction will suffer which will perpetuate the shortage in the years to come

• Stock markets will continue to be volatile, pushing money into real estate, especially at higher price points

• Canada’s response to Covid-19 is showing it a favorable place to be, immigration and investment will likely flourish with the United States potentially being a source of those coming to Canada.

Above all else, now is a time to focus on staying safe and healthy. There will be Real Estate activity while we are under these unprecedented times, some people’s financial wellbeing may depend upon it. Others just need a home to isolate in. What’s important is that we all act in a way to help bring back normalcy to our lives – as much as that can be. We’ve said it before and we will keep saying it, be safe, be careful and please reach out to us, even if it’s just to talk.

Full link to all stats for all regions and types above in link.

Greater Vancouver 
Westside
Eastside

Summary of the numbers:


 Greater Vancouver: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 2,562 – up from 2,185 (17%) in February 2020, up from 1,745 (47%) in March 2019, up from 2,551 (0%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 10,315 compared to 13,408 (down 23%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were down 11% compared to March 2019 and down 1% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Month’s Supply (Balanced with signs of Seller’s Market conditions in some areas and product types) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 57% compared to 35% in March 2019 and 51% in March 2018.

Vancouver Westside Residential: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 467 – up from 367 (27%) in February 2020, up from 333 (40%) in March 2019, up from 441 (6%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 1,814 compared to 2,511 (down 28%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were down 15% compared to March 2019 and down 5% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Month’s Supply (Balanced with signs of Seller’s Market conditions in some areas and product types) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 55% compared to 34% in March 2019 and 49% in March 2018.

Vancouver East Side Residential: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 297 – up from 243 (22%) in February 2020, up from 174 (71%) in March 2019, up from 284 (5%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 834 compared to 1,239 (down 33%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were down 9% compared to March 2019 and down 9% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market conditions in some areas and product types) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 64% compared to 34% in March 2019 and 55% in March 2018.

North Vancouver Residential: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 204 – down from 206 (1%) in February 2020, up from 165 (24%) in March 2019, down from 216 (6%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 640 compared to 883 (down 28%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were down 9% compared to March 2019 and down 2% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Month’s Supply (Balanced with mostly Seller’s Market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 57% compared to 42% in March 2019 and 60% in March 2018.

West Vancouver Residential: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 56 – down from 57 (2%) in February 2020, up from 34 (65%) in March 2019, up from 42 (36%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 553 compared to 670 (down 20%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were the same compared to March 2019 and up 9% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 10 Month’s Supply (Buyer’s Market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 33% compared to 20% in March 2019 and 27% in March 2018.

Richmond Residential: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 337 – up from 253 (33%) in February 2020, up from 178 (89%) in March 2019, up from 306 (10%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 1,464 compared to 2,025 (down 28%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were up 23% compared to March 2019 and down 14% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Month’s Supply (Balanced Market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 64% compared to 26% in March 2019 and 50% in March 2018.

Burnaby East: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 27 – down from 32 (16%) in February 2020, up from 17 (59%) in March 2019, up from 26 (4%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 101 compared to 141 (down 28%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were up 6% compared to March 2019 and up 17% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Month’s Supply (Balanced with signs of Seller’s Market conditions in some areas and product types) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 56% compared to 33% in March 2019 and 63% in March 2018.

Burnaby North: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 130 – up from 100 (30%) in February 2020, up from 77 (69%) in March 2019, down from 131 (1%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 392 compared to 536 (down 27%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were down 1% compared to March 2019 and up 3% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Month’s Supply (Balanced with signs of Seller’s Market conditions in some areas and product types) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 59% compared to 34% in March 2019 and 61% in March 2018.

Burnaby South: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 143 – up from 105 (36%) in February 2020, up from 97 (47%) in March 2019, up from 103 (39%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 482 compared to 771 (down 37%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were down 24% compared to March 2019 and up 12% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Month’s Supply (Balanced with signs of Seller’s Market conditions in some areas and product types) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 65% compared to 33% in March 2019 and 53% in March 2018.

New Westminster: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 118 – up from 90 (20%) in February 2020, up from 81 (46%) in March 2019, down from 149 (21%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 350 compared to 472 (down 26%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were down 2% compared to March 2019 and up 3% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Month’s Supply (Balanced with signs of Seller’s Market conditions in some areas and product types) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 59% compared to 40% in March 2019 and 77% in March 2018.

Coquitlam

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 202 – up from 196 (19%) in February 2020, up from 142 (42%) in March 2019, down from 204 (1%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 696 compared to 933 (down 25%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were down 5% compared to March 2019 and up 20% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Month’s Supply (Balanced with signs of Seller’s Market conditions in some areas and product types) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 52% compared to 35% in March 2019 and 63% in March 2018.

Port Moody: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 54 – up from 36 (50%) in February 2020, up from 38 (42%) in March 2019, down from 57 (5%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 199 compared to 210 (down 5%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were up 9% compared to March 2019 and up 33% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Month’s Supply (Balanced with signs of Seller’s Market conditions in some areas and product types) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 52% compared to 40% in March 2019 and 73% in March 2018.

Port Coquitlam: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 96 – up from 83 (16%) in February 2020, up from 59 (63%) in March 2019, down from 103 (7%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 194 compared to 168 (up 15%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were up 15% compared to March 2019 and up 9% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 68% compared to 35% in March 2019 and 82% in March 2018.

Ladner: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 32 – down from 36 (11%) in February 2020, up from 25 (28%) in March 2019, up from 24 33%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 171 compared to 170 (up 1%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were down 13% compared to March 2019 and up 22% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 5 Month’s Supply (Balanced Market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 48% compared to 32% in March 2019 and 44% in March 2018.

Tsawwassen: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 39 – up from 32 (22%) in February 2020, up from 15 (160%) in March 2019, and the same at 39 in March 2018; Active Listings are at 218 compared to 236 (down 8%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 down up 12% compared to March 2019 and down 14% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 6 Month’s Supply (Balanced Market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 52% compared to 18% in March 2019 and 45% in March 2018.

Pitt Meadows: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 35 – up from 27 (30%) in February 2020, up from 24 (45%) in March 2019, up from 34 (21%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 102 compared to 119 (down 14%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were up 20% compared to March 2019 and up 94% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Month’s Supply (Mostly a Seller’s Market with some Balanced Market Conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 53% compared to 43% in March 2019 and 100% in March 2018.

Maple Ridge: 

Total Units Sold in March 2020 was 170 – down from 177 (48%) in February 2020, up from 116 (46%) in March 2019, down from 180 (6%) in March 2018; Active Listings are at 659 compared to 675 (down 2%) at this time last year; New Listings in March 2020 were up 14% compared to March 2019 and up 5% compared to March 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Month’s Supply (Mostly a Seller’s Market with some Balanced Market Conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 57% compared to 44% in March 2019 and 63% in March 2018.

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