Do you want content like this delivered to your inbox?
Share
Share

Blistering Fall - An Autumn insight

Chris Spötzl

There really is no city quite like Vancouver anywhere in the world and that is what sets it apart...

There really is no city quite like Vancouver anywhere in the world and that is what sets it apart...

Nov 13 19 minutes read

Market Insight

The heat didn’t really show up this summer but the real estate market brought plenty of it in thepast couple of months. We made it through Halloween with a full moon, endless fireworks, turning back the clocks and, with all that, the real estate market was the least scary thing. In fact, the market continued to shake off the effects of all the uncertainties in the world and went out dressed as a bull when so many thought it would be the bear. Throw in a provincial election and the US presidential election as a potential distraction to home buyers and sellers - but they weren’t having any of it. The beat just carried on.

To the amazement of many, this past September was the best ever! The new record of 3,741 sales (55% above the 10-year average) eclipsed the 3,632 properties sold in September of 2009. October improved on that and produced 3,787 sales (36% higher than the 10-year average) for the second best in Greater Vancouver’s history only behind the 3,942 of October 2003. The pent up demand that we’ve been talking about for most of this year is very evident now and absorbed almost a record number of new listings that came on the market in September proving, once again, that supply has been a major issue. The good news is that this influx of new product curbed runaway price growth even though we’re seeing lots of multiple offers - people continue to seek more space as a result of spending more time at home so houses, half duplexes, and townhouses are the bulk of the demand. The bad news is that there was a significant decrease in the number of new listings in October bringing the total number of active listings in Greater Vancouver down to 12,797 at the start of November. This is compared to the peak this year of 13,790 at the end of September and 12,658 at the beginning of November 2019. If the demand stays the same this month, we could see escalating prices in a large section of the market.

Each month it seems that the end of this run gets forecasted but we’ve yet to see that happen. Of course, as we go through a typical year of market cycles, November, December and January see activity slow down. While this hasn’t been a typical year, it is safe to assume we’ll see this trend playout for the next 3 months as we come off the highs we’ve experienced. This shouldn’t be surprising nor indicative of anything more. This extremely local and well-founded market has the strength of significant demand behind it. But the current pandemic conditions and economic weight from the pandemic may play into market activity, but as we’ve seen it can both pull and push the market. And it is interesting to note that total sales in Greater Vancouver so far in 2020 are just shy of the total sales in 2019 and have already surpassed total sales in 2018. This is much more than pent up demand from a Covid-19 shutdown in the spring.

Looking at the different types of properties, detached home sales were up 43% year over year (77% in September), townhouses up 45% year over year (72% in September), apartments up 13% year over year (36% in September). The number of sales in October last year was the highest by month for 2019 so not surprising to see the year over year increases less this October. Detached homes made up 35% of all sales, while townhomes made up 21% and apartments 41% (down from 44%). Total active listings for apartments are up 31% year over year (compared to 20% at the end of September), and active listings for townhouse and detached homes are down 12% and 20% respectively year over year (compared to 9 and 21%).

2020 Average Daily Sales in Greater Vancouver by Week in COVID times:

First two weeks of March – 253 new listings, 138 sales

Last two weeks of March – 167 New Listings, 98 Sales

April – 120 new listings, 56 sales

May – 189 new listings, 75 sales

June – 274 new listings, 115 sales

July – 274 new listings, 147 sales

August - 299 new listings, 157 sales

September – 313 new listings, 176 sales

October 5 to 9 – 300 new listings, 169 sales

October 13 to 16 – 311 new listings, 186 sales

October 19 to 23 – 254 new listings, 206 sales

October 26 to 30 – 222 new listings, 167 sales


What’s next? 

As we move through the last two months of 2020 the inventory of resale homes will continue to decline and we’ll start 2021 with another market short on supply. The residential market in Greater Vancouver currently has 3 month’s supply of homes for sale – indicative of a seller’s market. We are witnessing extreme seller’s markets in North Vancouver, areas of Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Ladner that have 2 month’s supply with there being only one month’s supply of townhomes in Port Moody, Port Coquitlam and Coquitlam. The number of active listings for downtown apartments continues to be high although the increase in new listings leveled off in October. There has been an increase in the number of rentals available downtown as well with monthly rents showing a decline.

“Home has been a focus for residents during the pandemic. With more days and evenings spent at home this year, people are re-thinking their housing situation,” Colette Gerber, REBGV Chair said, “With demand on the rise, homes priced right for today’s market are receiving attention and, at times, garnering multiple offers.”

Greater Vancouver 
Westside
Eastside

Summary of the numbers: 

Greater Vancouver:  Total Units Sold in October were 3,787 – up from 3,741 (1%) in September 2020, up from 2,892 (31%) in October 2019, up from 1,995 (90%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 13,066 compared to 13,022 at this time last year and 13,790 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 13% compared to September 2020, up 36% compared to October 2019 and up 13% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 3 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 67% compared to 57% in September 2020, 69% in October 2019 and 40% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 6.0%.


Vancouver Westside:  Total Units Sold in October were 547 – up from 539 (1%) in September 2020, up from 506 (8%) in October 2019, up from 381 (44%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 2,820 compared to 2,278 at this time last year and 2,868 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 12% compared to September 2020, up 44% compared to October 2019 and up 16% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 5 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 46% compared to 40% in September 2020, 62% in October 2019 and 37% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 4.1%.


Vancouver East Side:  Total Units Sold in October were 392 – down from 443 (12%) in September 2020, up from 316 (24%) in October 2019, up from 234 (68%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 1,383 compared to 1,183 at this time last year and 1,392 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 17% compared to September 2020, up 57% compared to October 2019 and up 30% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is up to 4 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 57% compared to 54% in September 2020, 72% in October 2019 and 44% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.9%.

North Vancouver:  Total Units Sold in October were 334 – up from 328 (1%) in September 2020, up from 260 (31%) in October 2019, up from 173 (90%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 824 compared to 777 at this time last year and 918 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 23% compared to September 2020, up 31% compared to October 2019 and down 4% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 2 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 74% compared to 56% in September 2020, 76% in October 2019 and 37% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 9.6%.

West Vancouver:  Total Units Sold in October were 104 – up from 98 (6%) in September 2020, up from 66 (58%) in October 2019, up from 55 (89%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 630 compared to 654 at this time last year and 743 at the end of September; New Listings in October were the same compared to September 2020, up 31% compared to October 2019 and down 1% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 6 Month’s Supply (mostly balanced market conditions with buyer’s market conditions at the high end) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 50% compared to 47% in September 2020, 42% in October 2019 and 26% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.1%.

Richmond:   Total Units Sold in October were 384 – down from 415 (7%) in September 2020, up from 345 (11%) in October 2019, up from 230 (67%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 1,704 compared to 1,948 at this time last year and 1,751 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 11% compared to September 2020, up 23% compared to October 2019 and up 7% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Month’s Supply (mostly balanced market conditions with detached homes experiencing seller’s market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 62% compared to 59% in September 2020, 68% in October 2019 and 39% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.3%.

Burnaby East:  Total Units Sold in October were 50 – up from 41 (22%) in September 2020, up from 26 (92%) in October 2019, up from 17 (194%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 124 compared to 153 at this time last year and 139 at the end of September; New Listings in October were up 13% compared to September 2020, up 19% compared to October 2019 and up 19% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 2 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 81% compared to 75% in September 2020, 50% in October 2019 and 33% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 7.5%.

Burnaby North:  Total Units Sold in October were 170 – down from 192 (11%) in September 2020, up from 166 (2%) in October 2019, up from 76 (124%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 627 compared to 517 at this time last year and 644 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 18% compared to September 2020, up 37% compared to October 2019 and up 13% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is up to 4 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 60% compared to 55% in September 2020, 80% in October 2019 and 30% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.6%.

Burnaby South:  Total Units Sold in October were 178 – up from 173 (3%) in September 2020, up from 157 (13%) in October 2019, up from 87 (104%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 744 compared to 704 at this time last year and 769 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 16% compared to September 2020, up 30% compared to October 2019 and up 7% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 59% compared to 48% in September 2020, 68% in October 2019 and 31% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 3.4%.

New Westminster:  Total Units Sold in October were 168 – down from 176 (3%) in September 2020, up from 136 (24%) in October 2019, up from 88 (91%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 520 compared to 430 at this time last year and 540 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 15% compared to September 2020, up 69% compared to October 2019 and up 12% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 62% compared to 56% in September 2020, 85% in October 2019 and 36% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.5%.

Coquitlam:  Total Units Sold in October were 356 – up from 307 (16%) in September 2020, up from254 (40%) in October 2019, up from 136 (162%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 844 compared to 882 at this time last year and 897 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 11% compared to September 2020, up 37% compared to October 2019 and up 22% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 2 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 78% compared to 60% in September 2020, 77% in October 2019 and 37% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 7.6%.

Port Moody:  Total Units Sold in October were 92 – up from 88 (5%) in September 2020, up from 66 (39%) in October 2019, up from 36 (156%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 254 compared to 204 at this time last year and 282 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 26% compared to September 2020, up 50% compared to October 2019 and up 73% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 75% compared to 53% in September 2020, 80% in October 2019 and 51% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 3.9%.

Port Coquitlam:  Total Units Sold in October were 122 – up from 114 (7%) in September 2020, up from 107 (14%) in October 2019, up from 75 (63%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 250 compared to 296 at this time last year and 266 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 11% compared to September 2020, up 38% compared to October 2019 and up 9% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 69% compared to 58% in September 2020, 84% in October 2019 and 46% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.6%.

Ladner: Total Units Sold in October were 55 – up from 53 (4%) in September 2020, up from 21 (162%) in October 2019, up from 22 (150%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 120 compared to 187 at this time last year and 136 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 9% compared to September 2020, down 23% compared to October 2019 and up 16% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 2 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 108% compared to 95% in September 2020, 32% in October 2019 and 50% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.3%.

Tsawwassen:  Total Units Sold in October were 76 – down from 80 (5%) in September 2020, up from 32 (138%) in October 2019, up from 25 (204%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 285 compared to 296 at this time last year and 308 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 27% compared to September 2020, up 5% compared to October 2019 and up 25% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 89% compared to 69% in September 2020, 40% in October 2019 and 37% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 7.6%.

Pitt Meadows:  Total Units Sold in October were 39 – down from 44 (11%) in September 2020, up from 31 (25%) in October 2019, up from 32 (22%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 90 compared to 104 at this time last year and 100 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 23% compared to September 2020, up 2% compared to October 2019 and up 36% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 79% compared to 68% in September 2020, 64% in October 2019 and 86% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.6%.

Maple Ridge:  Total Units Sold in October were 293 – up from 267 (1%) in September 2020, up from 180 (62%) in October 2019, up from 183 (60%) in October 2018; Active Listings are at 527 compared to 765 at this time last year and 610 at the end of September; New Listings in October were down 4% compared to September 2020, up 19% compared to October 2019 and down 1% compared to October 2018. Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Month’s Supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 101% compared to 88% in September 2020, 74% in October 2019 and 49% in October 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 7.5%.

East of the Fraser River:

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 2,370 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® in October, an increase of 6.2% compared to sales in September and a 48.9% increase compared to October last year. This was the highest sales for the month of October in the Fraser Valley Board, a continued trend from September. There were 3,081 new listings in October, a 12.3% decrease compared to September and a 29.3% increase compared to October of last year. September finished with 6,872 active listings, a decrease of 6.8% compared to September’s inventory and a decrease of 7.1% year-over-year. “The situation is unprecedented. We are in the middle of a pandemic and in many of our communities we are seeing a strong seller’s market for townhomes and single-family homes priced correctly.” Chris Shields, President of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board said. “For example, in Langley, our current supply of detached homes would sell in 1.4 months if no new listings became available. And for Mission townhomes, we have zero months of inventory.”

Thinking of Making a Move? 

Get your home's value  

Our custom reports include accurate and up to date information

Get Home Value
We use cookies to enhance your browsing experience and deliver our services. By continuing to visit this site, you agree to our use of cookies. More info